Hurricane Wilma tore through southern Florida on October 24th with winds of 125 m.p.h. On December 9, 2005, the USDA reduced its estimate of Florida's 2005-2006 orange crop from 190 to 162 million boxes and also reduced the projected juice yield from 1.58 to 1.55 gallons per box at 42 degrees Brix. This is still up from the previous year's 150 million boxes. Citrus canker may be one of the growing concerns that Florida will face this year. On October 5, 2005, the USDA announced that $200 million in disaster relief was going to citrus growers in Florida to compensate for losses due to citrus canker. As of November 30, there were 1.03 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in U.S. cold storage, down 30% from a year ago.

On April 11, 2005, the USDA estimated Brazil's orange juice production in the July 2005-June 2006 marketing year at 1.14 million tons at 65 degrees Brix, down 15% from the previous year. There are potential problems on the horizon. Brazil has lost over two million trees to sudden citrus disease and now orange farmers are concerned about an outbreak of citrus greening disease. There is no cure to this disease, it is fatal to the trees, and it may have already spread throughout Brazil. In 2004, Brazil's exports of frozen orange juice concentrate were down 4% from the previous year. In the first eleven months of 2005, exports were up 13% from a year ago.

Florida's all orange forecast, at 162 million boxes (7.29 million tons), is down 15 percent from the previous forecast but up 8 percent from the 2004-05 crop. Early, midseason, and navel varieties are forecast at 80.0 million boxes (3.60 million tons), 14 percent below the previous forecast but 1 percent above last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia forecast is reduced by 15 million boxes to 82.0 million boxes (3.69 million tons), down 15 percent from the previous forecast but up 16 percent from last season's final utilization. Early-midseason bearing tree numbers are reduced from the number used to prepare the October forecast by 1.4 percent, and Valencia tree numbers are reduced by 2.4 percent. For both Valencia and early-midseason crops, projected fruit sizes will be smaller than any of the previous 10 years, and fruit drop will be above average.

USDA Crop Production. December 9, 2005.

Unlike canker, which creates unsightly lesions on fruit, the citrus greening disease is deadly to crops. It already has infected and killed trees in Southeast Asia and Africa and had started attacking crops in Brazil, the world's largest producer of oranges, before being detected in Florida in September.

The average productive life span of trees in areas affected by citrus greening has dropped from 50 or more years to 15 or less. There is no known cure for the disease, which does not harm humans.

Adrian Sainz, Associated Press. October 31, 2005.

Growers also were concerned that Wilma may further spread citrus canker, a bacteria that can weaken citrus plants. The disease almost was eradicated last year, but 2004's hurricanes spread it to the heart of the citrus-growing regions of Florida, forcing state agriculture officials to remove or plan to remove 70,000 acres of citrus.

"We still think we can stop the disease if we stay ahead of it and try to get those trees on ground before they have a chance to spread," said Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson.

Mike Schneider, Associated Press. October 26, 2005.