Three cases of mad cow disease in Canada and two in the U.S. have caused major disruptions in international beef trade. So far, U.S. ranchers have enjoyed higher prices, but Canadian ranchers have been hit hard financially. It is looking like Japan has finally agreed to allow U.S. beef from cattle that are 20 months or younger to return to the country, but the market is still waiting for the official announcement - possibly on December 12. A U.S. appeals court has allowed the U.S. to import young Canadian cattle again, but there may still be more legal challenges ahead. In the meantime, U.S. beef production is projected to increase slightly in 2005 and 4% in 2006. On December 9th, the USDA increased its estimate of the 2005 average steer price from 85.96 to 87.09 cents and the 2006 average estimate from 81.0 to 82.0 cents. Of course, those estimates are vulnerable to changes in trade policies. If the U.S. - Canadian trade dispute over cattle is anything like the lumber dispute, this could go on for years.

As of July 1, 2005, the U.S. cattle and calf inventory registered its second official increase since 1996, but the herd is still relatively small. The December 1st cattle on-feed inventory was 11.726 million head, up 3.5% from last year. November placements were up 17% and marketings were up 4% from a year ago. In 2005, U.S. beef production was up .7% from a year ago.

Cattle and beef markets are gearing up for the winter holiday season and continue to react as Japan and the United States work out details for resuming Japanese imports of U.S. beef...

Feedlots continue to move cattle at strong prices as disappointing grading conditions continue. Packer margins hover at or below breakeven levels. Wholesale prices continue well above year-earlier levels, while retail prices remain strong and about steady with prices for the same time during 2004.

USDA's Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry Outlook. December 16, 2005.

Isn't it about time that the US Beef producers (mainly Angus producers) break open the whole mad cow issue and let the world know that it was a Holstein cow that was affected and not a beef steer or cow. I am just amazed at how mum the beef producers are on this issue. There has never been a mad cow case in beef cattle in the US, only dairy cattle.

I don't eat any beef unless it is certified Angus.

Terry R. Krukemyer, Phoenix, Arizona. December 6, 2005

The (Japanese) committee said to meet the conditions to resume imports, the beef must be from cattle aged 20 months or younger with brains, spinal cord tissue and other so-called specified risk materials removed. The age limit means only the equivalent of 20 percent of cattle previously eligible for export to Japan will be available, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said last month.

Bloomberg news. October 31, 2005.